Two diverging signals defined markets heading into Tuesday June 9. Equities staged a partial recovery on Monday June 8, with semiconductors leading the bounce after Friday's historic selloff. Crypto deteriorated further, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 8 and BTC ETF outflows resuming. The focal point for both markets is May CPI, releasing Wednesday June 10 at 8:30 AM ET.
What is the crypto ETF flow picture showing?
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $330 million in net outflows on the most recent session, continuing a pattern of institutional withdrawal that has seen cumulative outflows of $2.8 to $3.5 billion over more than 10 consecutive days of redemptions. Ethereum ETFs posted a smaller net outflow of approximately $10 million. The outflow streak context matters: BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for approximately 75% of total BTC ETF outflows over the streak, representing deliberate institutional risk reduction rather than broad retail panic.
What does the on-chain perpetual positioning show?
All four major trader segments maintain net short bias across BTC, ETH, and HYPE as of the most recent terminal data. PnL Champions (traders with $1M or more in cumulative PnL) show the most extreme bias at -0.84, with $1.14 billion in longs versus $1.96 billion in shorts. Mega Wallets ($5M or more in perpetual equity) sit at -0.25 with $1.78 billion long versus $2.08 billion short. Elite Wallets and Rising Stars show similar bearish tilts at -0.17 and -0.30 respectively. The uniformity of the bearish bias across all wallet tiers is notable: when every segment is short simultaneously, the setup for a short squeeze becomes mechanically significant if a positive catalyst arrives.
What do the liquidation figures show?
Intraday liquidation data from the terminal shows ETH longs bearing the brunt of forced selling, with approximately $2.27 million in long liquidations versus $0.25 million in short liquidations, totalling $2.53 million. BTC longs showed $1.55 million in forced exits versus $0.05 million in short liquidations, totalling $1.60 million. The skew toward long liquidations confirms that leveraged long positions are being forced out rather than shorts being squeezed, consistent with the continued downward price pressure on both assets.
What is the sentiment picture across crypto and equities?
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 8, the lowest reading since the ETF outflow streak began in mid-May, representing the deepest extreme fear reading of the current cycle. The Stock Fear and Greed Index sits at 40 (Fear). The VIX eased 12.04% to close at 18.92 on Monday June 8, confirming some relief after Friday's spike to 21.51. However a VIX of 18.92 remains elevated relative to the 12-16 range that characterised the nine-week S&P 500 winning streak. Easing is not the same as normalising.
What did equities do on Monday June 8?
The Nasdaq gained 0.86% and the Russell 2000 gained 0.85%, with semiconductors leading the recovery. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF gained 5%, clawing back a portion of last week's losses. The S&P 500 advanced 0.30% while the Dow slipped 0.16%. The partial recovery was tempered by renewed Middle East tensions over the weekend, with Israel and Iran exchanging strikes that threatened the fragile ceasefire. Chances of at least one Fed rate hike this year rose to 72% early Monday according to CME FedWatch.
Airlines were among the notable decliners. Delta (DAL), United (UAL), American (AAL), and Southwest (LUV) all slipped after the International Air Transport Association halved its 2026 profit outlook, citing fuel cost escalation from the Middle East conflict. Boeing cleared a key 777X certification hurdle, providing a modest positive for the aerospace sector.
What does the CPI data ahead mean for both markets?
May CPI is scheduled for release on Wednesday June 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET by the BLS. April CPI came in at 0.6% MoM and 3.8% YoY. The consensus for May headline CPI is approximately 0.3% MoM, reflecting expectations that the energy-driven April spike moderates as oil prices pulled back from their peak. Core CPI YoY for May is expected near 2.8-2.9%, with market-implied probabilities nearly tied between those two outcomes per Polymarket data.
May PPI releases Thursday June 12 at 8:30 AM ET. April PPI came in at 1.4% MoM, the largest single-month advance since March 2022. The FOMC meets June 16-17, with the decision and dot plot at 2:00 PM ET on June 17. That is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first dot plot as chair. With rate hike probability for 2026 rising to 72%, a hot CPI print on June 10 would meaningfully change the complexity of what Warsh faces on June 17. June OPEX is Thursday June 18, moved from the standard third Friday due to the Juneteenth holiday.
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