The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% target range on June 17, but the projections underneath the decision leaned hawkish: nine of 18 officials now project at least one rate hike before year-end, with the median end-2026 dot moving from 3.4% to 3.8%. On June 18, the Philly Fed manufacturing index came in at 10.3 against a 10.0 consensus, and the S&P 500 recovered 1.08% from Thursday's selloff. Intel surged 10.64% on an Apple foundry announcement. Accenture dropped roughly 18% on a guidance cut that dragged IT services broadly lower.
What did the Fed decide at its June 17 meeting?
The Fed held the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, a widely expected decision. The June Summary of Economic Projections showed nine of 18 officials now project a rate hike before year-end, compared to zero in the March projections. The median end-2026 rate projection moved from 3.4% to 3.8%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cited persistent inflation risk as the basis for the hawkish shift.
What did the Philly Fed manufacturing index show?
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index came in at 10.3 for June, up sharply from -0.4 in May and above the 10.0 consensus estimate. A reading above zero signals expansion in the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing district. The jump from contraction in May to a positive June print was the week's biggest data surprise, suggesting regional industrial activity rebounded faster than most forecasters expected.
Which stocks moved the most the week of June 16?
Intel was the biggest gainer, up 10.64% on June 18 after an announcement that Apple agreed to work with Intel's foundry to design and build chips in the US. KLA Corporation gained 8.71% on semiconductor equipment demand optimism. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing rose 6.94% on broad sector strength. Accenture dropped roughly 18% after reporting a Q3 revenue miss and cutting full-year guidance, citing weakness in its US federal business segment. IBM fell 5.49% as IT services stocks repriced on Accenture's weak bookings. Northrop Grumman declined 5.21% after the US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in France reduced geopolitical risk premium on defense spending.
What is ahead the week of June 22?
US markets are closed today, June 19, for Juneteenth. Trading resumes Monday, June 22. The next FOMC decision is July 29, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. CPI and PCE data expected in July will determine whether the nine hawkish dot plot votes translate into an actual rate hike. The VIX closed at 16.40 on June 18, down from elevated levels earlier in the week.
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