Market Update: FedWatch, Earnings, and Crypto Outlook
FedWatch & Rate Outlook
- Current Fed funds target: 3.50‑3.75%
- Next FOMC meeting: 18 Jun 2026
- Probabilities: 97.2% chance rates stay unchanged; 2.8% chance of 3.25‑3.50% cut
- Markets pricing suggests extended pause through 2026
Key Economic Releases This Week
- Core CPI m/m: Forecast 0.3% vs prior 0.2% – mild inflation persistence may delay cuts
- CPI m/m: Forecast 0.6% vs prior 0.9% – stable price growth
- CPI y/y: Forecast 3.7% vs prior 3.3% – controlled inflation
- Fed Chair Nomination Vote: Expected to pass, reinforcing policy continuity
- Core PPI m/m: Forecast 0.3% – low producer inflation pressure
- PPI m/m: Forecast 0.5% – modest wholesale price increase
- Core Retail Sales m/m: Forecast 0.6% vs prior 1.9% – resilient consumer demand
- Unemployment Claims: Forecast 206K vs prior 200K – slight easing
Market Movers & Sector Highlights
- Gainers: Corning (+0.11%), Qualcomm (+0.08%), Micron (+0.07%)
- Losers: Zoetis (-0.07%), Shopify (-0.07%), Intuitive Surgical (-0.07%)
- AI Chip Momentum: NVDA, AMD, INTC, QCOM show strong call demand; options skewed to calls
- Metal & Minerals: Silver and gold miners rally on safe‑haven demand; SLV and GDX call bias persists
- Healthcare: Long‑dated call exposure in INSM, SYK, CNC signals defensive positioning
Earnings Spotlight
- Cisco (CSCO) Q3 2026 earnings beat expectations, EPS $1.04
- Applied Materials (AMAT) Q2 2026 EPS estimate $2.68, robust semiconductor equipment demand
- Alibaba (BABA) Q4 2026 EPS estimate $5.74, strong e‑commerce traffic
- Petrobras (PBR) Q1 2026 EPS $0.99, buoyed by higher oil prices
- Tesla (TSLA) hourly flow turns bearish with surge in puts, signaling short‑term profit taking
Crypto & Liquidity Snapshot
- BTC Liquidations: Low severity, total $164,914k; shorts dominate (~1.5% of total)
- ETH Liquidations: Low severity, total 13,984 ETH; urgent high‑leverage shorts at $2,333
- ETF Flows: Bitcoin ETFs see net outflow of $151M; Ethereum ETFs flat
- Fear & Greed Index: Crypto sentiment neutral at 49, trending toward fear
What to Watch Next
- May 13‑14 Economic Calendar: Core CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims – key for Fed timing
- Q1 Earnings Season: Continued tech and semiconductor results will drive sector direction
- Geopolitical Risks: Oil price volatility and Iran‑related supply concerns may impact inflation expectations
Investment Themes
- AI Infrastructure: Sustain exposure to NVDA, AMD, INTC via bull‑call spreads
- Metals Hedge: Consider long calls on AG or SLV for silver‑driven upside
- defensive Healthcare: Keep an eye on INSM, SYK for long‑dated call accumulation
Disclaimer
This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.