Thursday gave markets the one thing they needed: a credible off-ramp from the Iran escalation. President Trump called off further strikes and gave the clearest signal yet that a deal might be close. Semiconductors, which had been the hardest-hit sector since the Broadcom selloff a week ago, led the recovery. The Nasdaq gained 2.54%, the S&P 500 rose 1.75%, and the Dow added 1.86%. None of that changes the underlying macro picture. But it bought the market a day.
What drove the semiconductor rebound on June 11?
Two things converged. The Iran de-escalation signal removed the immediate oil supply premium that had been feeding headline inflation and pressuring long-duration tech multiples. Then ASML hosted an event where Elon Musk appeared virtually to discuss Terafab, a chipmaking facility intended to supply Tesla and SpaceX, which sent fresh demand signals through the equipment names.
Intel surged 10.3%, its strongest single session in months, as the AI chip and domestic manufacturing narrative got a clean catalyst. AMAT rose 7.8%, ARM gained 7.8%, and ASML closed up 4.56%. NVDA added 1.44% and Micron gained 2.49%. The rebound does not erase the 10.3% SOX drop from June 5. It is a partial recovery in a sector still carrying elevated put skew and a VIX that closed Thursday at 19.44, down 12% from Wednesday's 22.22 but still above the 12-16 range that defined the nine-week winning streak.
What did Oracle's earnings show and why did it fall 11.9%?
Oracle reported fiscal Q4 FY2026 results after Wednesday's close and missed revenue expectations. The stock fell 11.9% on Thursday. The miss came despite strong cloud infrastructure demand: guidance implied a deceleration in growth that the market, which had priced Oracle as an AI cloud beneficiary, did not want to see. GoDaddy slipped 2.5% and Axon declined 2.2%. The divergence inside tech, semis surging while software names fell, reflects a market still rotating within the sector rather than making a clean directional call.
What did May PPI show and what does it mean for the FOMC?
May PPI released Thursday June 11 at 8:30 AM ET came in at 1.1% MoM and 6.5% YoY, the highest annual rate since November 2022 and above the 0.7% MoM consensus. Nearly 80% of the monthly advance came from goods prices, which surged 2.8%, the largest monthly goods increase since the data series began in 2009. Gasoline jumped 23.4% at the wholesale level. Core PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services accelerated 0.8% MoM, the biggest one-month move since March 2022, putting the annual rate at 5.1%.
This is not a soft print dressed up by energy. The core acceleration is real. Following Wednesday's headline CPI at 4.2% YoY, the combination of two consecutive months of elevated CPI and a PPI pipeline running at 6.5% annually creates the most inflationary data backdrop Warsh will have faced since taking the chair. CME FedWatch shows 99.4% probability of a hold at the June 16-17 meeting. The decision at 2:00 PM ET June 17 is not the event. The dot plot is. Specifically, whether the median dot shifts to signal a hike later this year.
What do fixed income and FX show after PPI?
The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back to 4.465% on Thursday from Wednesday's 16-month high of 4.69%, as the Iran deal signal pushed risk appetite higher and reduced the inflation risk premium modestly. The 3-month yield held near 3.723%. The curve remains in bear steepener territory: long rates fell on risk-on but the structural upward pressure from persistent inflation is not resolved by one day of geopolitical optimism.
EURUSD moved to 1.1570 as the dollar softened slightly on the Iran de-escalation. AUDUSD near 0.7043, NZDUSD at 0.5827, GBPUSD holding near 1.3410. The dollar gave back some of its safe-haven premium but the rate differential story is unchanged. Fed at 3.50-3.75% with a 99.4% hold probability and a hot PPI print in the market's hands.
Gold fell to approximately $4,105, down from recent highs as the Iran risk premium compressed on deal signals. A de-escalation that actually holds would remove one of gold's key near-term tailwinds. Brent crude remained near $94-95.
What is the crypto sentiment picture?
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 12, still in extreme fear despite Thursday's equity recovery. Bitcoin and Ethereum saw low-severity liquidation activity. The divergence between equity sentiment recovering and crypto staying in extreme fear reflects different mechanics: equities responded to the Iran catalyst, crypto is still working through the ETF outflow hangover and the macro rate-hike risk that the hot CPI and PPI data reinforces.
What should traders watch into the FOMC?
The FOMC meets June 16-17. The decision and dot plot release at 2:00 PM ET on June 17. Warsh's first dot plot as chair lands with CPI at 4.2% YoY, PPI at 6.5% YoY, and NFP at 172,000. The data demands a restrictive posture. The question is whether the dot plot signals a hike path explicitly, or whether Warsh uses the uncertainty framing he has historically preferred to avoid forward guidance commitments.
June OPEX is Thursday June 18, the day after the FOMC decision. The gamma structure in SPY and semiconductor names will be actively managed through the week. The VIX at 19.44 still prices a meaningful vol premium into those events. At 22 last week it was higher, but 19 is not calm.
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