The week leading up to the July 30 Fed meeting saw steady rate expectations, modest equity rotations, and a slight retreat in volatility as the VIX slipped below 16.
Key Economic Releases
- Fed funds target 3.5‑3.75% with 75.6% probability of no change at the July 30 meeting.
- VIX at 15.81, down 2.11% on the week.
- US Treasury yields: 10‑yr 4.485% (+0.01), 2‑yr 4.137% (‑0.027), 30‑yr 4.985% (+0.019).
Market Movers
- Gainers: MRNA (+10.01%), MSTR (+7.90%), NOC (+5.59%).
- Losers: KLAC (‑11.51%), LRCX (‑10.19%), AMAT (‑7.35%).
- Gap‑ups: RIVN (+8.44%), AZN (+6.14%), SPGI (+6.01%).
- Gap‑downs: AAOX (‑26.11%), COHR (‑9.57%), CLS (‑7.03%).
Central Bank Watch
- July 30 meeting: 75.6% chance rates stay 3.5‑3.75%, 24.4% chance of a 25‑bp hike.
- Sep 17 meeting: 46.6% chance of a 25‑bp hike to 3.75‑4.00%, 42.9% chance of no change.
- Oct 29 meeting: 45.8% chance of 3.75‑4.00%, 34.0% chance of 3.5‑3.75%.
Yield Landscape
Short‑term rates slipped, with the 3‑month at 3.765% (‑0.032) and 1‑month at 3.607% (‑0.012). Longer tenors edged higher; the 10‑year rose to 4.485% and the 30‑year to 4.985%.
Earnings Calendar
- PepsiCo (PEP) – Q2 2026 earnings on July 9 (EST 12:30), EPS est $2.21.
- Delta Air Lines (DAL) – Q2 2026 earnings on July 10 (EST 12:30), EPS est $1.48.
- Levi Strauss (LEVI) – Q2 2026 earnings on July 8 (20:00 UTC), EPS est $0.24.
- Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) – Q3 2026 earnings on July 6 (20:00 UTC), EPS est $0.18.
- PriceSmart (PSMT) – Q3 2026 earnings on July 8 (20:00 UTC), EPS est $1.19.
What to Watch Next Week
- Fed July 30 policy decision.
- US CPI and PCE releases.
- Continued equity rotation in tech and industrials.
- Potential volatility rebound if VIX stabilizes.