The week’s macro backdrop was dominated by a cautious Fed stance, softer US service‑sector data, and a market that has been oscillating around the 3.5%‑3.75% policy range.
Key Economic Releases
- ISM Services PMI: 54.2 vs 54.5 forecast 54.2, indicating slower growth.
- FOMC Meeting Minutes: no rate change signals, neutral impact.
- Unemployment Claims: slight rise 218K vs 215K, mild labor market weakness.
Market Movers
Equities traded in a choppy environment with tech stocks showing resilience while some consumer names pulled back.
- Gainers: Lemonade (LMND), GFL Environmental (GFL), Joby Aviation (JOBY)
- Losers: Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS), Ul Solutions (ULS), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
- Gap Ups: Bloom Energy (BE), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Vertiv Holdings (VRT)
Central Bank Watch
FedWatch shows a 74.5% probability that the Fed Funds rate will stay in the 3.50‑3.75% corridor for the next meeting on July 30, suggesting a hold stance. The VIX sits at 15.57, a mild decline of 1.52%, reflecting subdued fear. Market sentiment remains in the 'fear' band with a 43 index.
- Fed Funds target: 3.50‑3.75%
- VIX: 15.57
- Fear/Greed Index: 43
What to Watch Next Week
- FOMC meeting on July 30
- Q2 earnings: PepsiCo (July 9), Delta Air Lines (July 10), Levi's (July 8)
- ISM Manufacturing (expected 52.2)
- US CPI release July 27
- Non‑farm payroll July 28