The market opened the week with Treasury yields ticking higher across the curve, the VIX easing to 16.45, and mixed economic data pointing to a modest slowdown in hiring and manufacturing activity.
Key Economic Releases
- ADP Non‑Farm Employment Change (Jul 1, 08:15 pm, Medium impact): Forecast 118 K vs 122 K previous, indicating slower hiring.
- Fed Chairman Warsh speech (Jul 1, 09:00 pm, High impact): Signals on policy stance and potential rate moves.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul 1, 10:00 pm, High impact): Forecast 53.8 vs 54.0, modest slowdown.
- ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jul 1, 10:00 pm, Medium impact): Forecast 77.7 down from 82.1, easing price pressures.
- Average Hourly Earnings m/m (Jul 2, 08:30 pm, High impact): Expected 0.3%, flat with prior, suggesting subdued wage growth.
Market Movers
- Gainers: KLAC (+8.38%), ON (+6.74%), MPWR (+5.46%).
- Losers: MSTR (‑6.20%), DLR (‑5.77%), T (‑5.13%).
- Gap‑ups: SNDK (+10.89%), BE (+10.07%), AXON (+9.79%).
- Gap‑downs: NVCT (‑35.54%), CRCL (‑17.55%), XXI (‑6.78%).
Central Bank Watch
- Fed funds target range remains 3.5‑3.75%.
- Probability of a rate hike at the July 30 meeting: 65.7% for 3.5‑3.75% staying, 34.3% for a 3.75‑4.00% hike.
- Market eyes the July 30 FOMC as the next decision point.
What to Watch Next Week
- Fed meeting on July 30 (rate decision).
- Earnings releases: NIKE, Constellation Brands, General Mills, FactSet, Bitmine.
- VIX level and continued yield curve movements.
- Further ISM and labor data releases.