Tuesday's session snapped a three-day losing streak across every major index, with a semiconductor rebound doing most of the work. Wednesday is the bigger test: Texas Instruments reports today, Alphabet and Tesla report after the close, and a fresh geopolitical flashpoint just opened a second front in the oil market.
What did equities do on Tuesday?
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all closed higher and snapped three-day losing streaks, led by a semiconductor rebound. Earnings were messier underneath the index gains: Danaher and Halliburton both beat estimates but fell anyway, General Motors absorbed another EV charge, and AMC posted a record quarter.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,509.20, up 0.89%, the Dow rose 0.74% to 52,224.64, the Nasdaq gained 1.29% to 25,837.21, and the Russell 2000 added 1.53% to 2,987.40. Semiconductors did the heavy lifting: Micron jumped 12% and SanDisk gained as much as 14% intraday, a second straight rebound session after the prior week's chip selloff. Texas Instruments rose 3.4% ahead of today's print, after Susquehanna raised its price target to $340 from $300. The VIX fell 8.58% to 17.05, trading in a 16.86 to 17.99 range.
Danaher beat on both lines, adjusted EPS of $1.94 on $6.3 billion in revenue, and raised full-year guidance to $8.45 to $8.60 a share. The stock still fell about 10% in premarket trading anyway. General Motors posted net income of $1.3 billion, down 31% year over year on a $2.3 billion EV wind-down charge, its third such charge in two years, but adjusted earnings still rose 30% to $3.9 billion and the company lifted its 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $14 billion to $16 billion. Halliburton beat on revenue and earnings, but Middle East revenue fell nearly 11% to $1.3 billion as the Iran conflict curbs oilfield activity there, and shares slipped despite the headline beat. AMC Entertainment was the standout: $1.597 billion in revenue, the highest quarterly figure in its 106-year history, and a surprise 14-cent profit against a forecast loss. Shares jumped double digits.
Why is the Fed still leaning toward a hold, not a cut or a hike?
Futures markets now price an 83.4% probability that the Fed holds rates at its July 29 meeting, up sharply from about 63% a week earlier. The federal funds target has sat at 3.50% to 3.75% since the last move, and a hold is the clear consensus base case heading into the decision.
CME FedWatch data showed the 83.4% hold probability as of Tuesday's close, up from roughly 63% a week earlier as hawkish Fed commentary and the oil-driven inflation scare both faded. The Federal Open Market Committee meets July 29 and announces its decision at 2:00 PM ET. The size of that week-over-week swing shows how sensitive rate pricing still is to a single data print or a single governor's comments.
What is driving crude oil, and why did the risk premium just get a second source?
Brent crude gained for a third straight session on continued US strikes on Iran and a tanker hit near the Strait of Hormuz. A separate, newer development, a Houthi blockade of Saudi shipping through the Bab al-Mandab strait, just opened a second live chokepoint risk that the market has not fully priced yet.
Brent crude rose more than 2% to about $84.50 a barrel Tuesday, a third straight gain and its highest level since June 12, on a tenth consecutive night of US strikes on Iran and a tanker hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Until this week, Hormuz carried the entire geopolitical premium in the oil market. That changed when Yemen's Houthi forces announced a full maritime blockade on Saudi shipping through Bab al-Mandab, the chokepoint at the southern mouth of the Red Sea. A Chinese very large crude carrier reversed course mid-transit within hours of the announcement, and two more tankers carrying 2.7 million barrels bound for China and India turned back the same day. Tanker insurance and freight markets have not fully repriced either chokepoint yet.
What do the latest inventory and jobs data actually show?
The most recent released EIA data, for the week ended July 10, showed crude inventories falling 1.7 million barrels and still running below the five-year seasonal average. The most recent ADP report showed private payrolls up 98,000 in June, below consensus. Neither series has a fresh print due before Wednesday's close.
The most recent EIA data covers the week ended July 10: commercial crude inventories fell 1.7 million barrels to 409.7 million barrels, 6% below the five-year seasonal average, with refinery inputs running at 17.1 million barrels a day. This week's report, covering the week ended July 17, is due later today at 10:30 AM ET and had not yet printed as of this writing. On the labor side, ADP's most recent National Employment Report showed private payrolls up 98,000 in June, below the 110,000 consensus and down from a revised 122,000 in May. The next monthly ADP report is not due until August 5.
What should traders watch tonight and Thursday?
Alphabet and Tesla both report after today's close in the first real test of the AI capex thesis in six months. Texas Instruments reports today and Intel follows Thursday, rounding out a week that will set the tone for how markets read AI spending and consumer demand into August.
Alphabet and Tesla both report after today's close. Google Cloud grew 63% last quarter, and consensus wants roughly $101 billion in total revenue tonight, with capex guidance the number that likely moves the stock more than the top line. Tesla delivered a record 480,126 vehicles in Q2, 19% above the street estimate, but automotive gross margin under promotional pricing, not the delivery count, is what the market is actually pricing into a stock with EPS estimates spread between $0.36 and $0.54.
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