Analysis across equities, crypto, forex, options and macro, written to complement the live data in the terminal.
The US Treasury yield curve, FOMC decisions, CPI and PPI prints, and the FRED indicators that move every other asset class. Weekly recaps track Fed funds odds, inflation surprises, and how rate expectations are repricing.
Start here: Nonfarm Payrolls, Explained · What Is the Yield Curve?
Fed Chair Warsh gave no October signal and hike odds fell from ~27% to ~16%, yet the 10Y sits near 5.06% and Brent near $108.
Read article →Final-demand PPI rose 1.3% in September and 6.3% y/y, driven by a 10.8% energy jump. The Dow added 556 points as money left chips for healthcare.
Read article →September payrolls rose 29K while CPI hit 3.7%. Hike odds for Oct 28 sit near 44-50%. Here is how the two prints collide, with PPI and claims at 8:30 AM ET.
Read article →The 10Y breakeven is 2.33% while the 10Y yield is near 5.22%. The rise is real yield, not inflation fear. What September CPI can and cannot change.
Read article →Fed funds futures price 22% hike odds for Oct 28, not cuts. Treasury curve bear-steepens, HY spreads widen into today's FOMC minutes at 2pm ET.
Read article →The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.39% Wednesday, its highest since 2004, as hot PMI data and a hawkish Fed push nearly the whole curve above 5%.
Read article →Chicago Fed's Goolsbee says demand, not just tariffs, may now drive inflation. Markets price near 58% odds of an Oct 28 rate hike to 4.00-4.25%.
Read article →Fed raised to 3.75%-4.00%. BoE held at 3.75% on a 6-3 hawkish split, UK CPI at 3.1%, and a £368B gilt unwind through 2034.
Read article →Kalshi and CME FedWatch now price a Fed hike near even money with a hold for Sept 16, up from 35% in early August, as cut odds collapse to 10%.
Read article →The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.20% on Aug 27, near its highest since 2007, hours before Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech.
Read article →Conference Board confidence fell to 90.8 in July, a third monthly drop. Case-Shiller shows home prices up just 1.1% year over year in May 2026.
Read article →U.S. Treasury yields climb as Fed rate outlook stays uncertain and key earnings loom. Market gains moderate while volatility dips, with a 16 Sep Fed meeting ahead.
Read article →AI-spending doubts pressure equities as CME FedWatch odds continue favoring a 25bp Fed hike at the September 16 meeting.
Read article →July payrolls fell 23,000, not rose 85K. S&P 500 posted its best week since April at a record 7,757.64 as Fed hike odds hold near 62%.
Read article →VIX falls 4.17% to 15.15 as Q2 productivity jumps 1.4%. Fed hike odds hit 81% for Sept 16 after 9-3 hold vote, dissenters wanted a hike.
Read article →SpaceX's 911.5M-share lockup hit as CME FedWatch prices an 81% chance of a Fed hike, not a cut, for the September 16 FOMC meeting.
Read article →Fed holds at 3.50-3.75%, 10-year yield tops 4.70%, BOJ at 1%, and Amazon's AWS surge headlines the week of July 27-31, 2026.
Read article →Core capital goods orders rose 0.9% in June, beating forecasts, as durable goods orders climbed 0.3% to $334.8 billion into FOMC week.
Read article →June durable goods orders print at 8:30 AM ET today. Semiconductors have fallen 18% in July as markets price the Fed's July 29 rate decision.
Read article →S&P, Dow and Nasdaq snap a 3-day losing streak, Fed hold odds hit 83.4%, and a new Houthi blockade at Bab al-Mandab adds a second oil chokepoint alongside Hormuz.
Read article →20+ live channels across equities, crypto, forex, options and macro. Free for 14 days.