The week of October 26-30 stacks the Fed decision, Microsoft and Alphabet earnings, GDP, PCE and Amazon earnings into one 27-hour stretch, starting at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. Everything else on the calendar is setup for that window. Here is the dated schedule, and what each item is actually testing, as of Sunday, October 25.
What is the Fed decision on Wednesday, October 28?
The FOMC meets October 27-28 and announces at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday, with Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET. The target range is 3.75% to 4.00% after September's 25 basis point hike. Futures priced roughly a 90% chance of a hold as of October 22. This meeting has no Summary of Economic Projections or dot plot.
The range comes straight from the FOMC calendar page and the September hike was the first since July 2023. The 90.6% hold probability is a CME FedWatch reading from October 22, and it moves with every futures tick.
A near-certain hold is not a quiet event. With no dot plot, the statement wording and the press conference carry the whole signal, so the question is tone toward December, not the October rate.
What is on the economic calendar Monday through Friday?
Monday has no top-tier print. Tuesday brings durable goods at 8:30 AM ET and new home sales at 10:00 AM ET. Wednesday is the Fed. Thursday at 8:30 AM ET delivers the advance third-quarter GDP estimate and September personal income and outlays, which includes PCE inflation. Friday at 8:30 AM ET has the third-quarter Employment Cost Index.
The BEA schedule confirms GDP and personal income and outlays together on Thursday, October 29. Durable goods, new home sales and the Employment Cost Index fill out Tuesday and Friday.
The October jobs report is not this week. The BLS schedule puts it at 8:30 AM ET on Friday, November 6.
Which earnings reports matter this week?
Alphabet reports after the close Wednesday with its call at 4:30 PM ET, and Microsoft follows with a 5:30 PM ET call. Amazon reports after the close Thursday with a 5:00 PM ET call. Intel also reports Thursday. All three mega-caps land after the Fed and, for Amazon, after GDP and PCE.
Dates and call times come from TradingKey's week-ahead preview. Amazon's own guidance was net sales of $197 billion to $202 billion and operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion, so the print is measured against its own range, not just a street number.
The order matters. Fed tone sets the discount rate for whatever Microsoft and Alphabet say about AI spending an hour or two later.
What backdrop do these events land in?
Treasury yields are already high going in. The 10-year closed the week of October 19-23 at 5.00%, the 2-year at 4.69% and the 30-year at 5.33%, a 2s10s spread near 31 basis points. Brent settled at $116.72 on Friday, its highest settle since late April.
Yields are from the Treasury daily curve. The Brent settle of $116.72 and WTI at $103.27 came with the S&P 500 energy sector up about 2.4% on Friday, a record for the group, per Reuters. The S&P 500 finished the week down about 0.5%.
A 5% 10-year plus $100-plus oil is why a hold with a hawkish edge can still move equities. The rate stays the same, but the cost of waiting does not.
How should you read Thursday's GDP and PCE prints?
The 8:30 AM ET release is the first hard Q3 growth number and the first inflation reading for the month of the hike. Strong growth with hot PCE would keep December hike risk alive. Weak growth with soft PCE would argue the September hike already did the work. Mixed prints leave the Fed's tone as the tiebreaker.
Compare the headline and core PCE figures against the August report, not against a forecast headline, since consensus numbers vary by source. The sequence is the useful part: Wednesday's Fed tone is set before Thursday's data lands, so the market gets to re-price the same stance twice in 18 and a half hours.
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