Congress signed a continuing resolution on September 2, funding federal agencies through December 11. The shutdown risk that hung over the October 1 deadline all summer is gone, and this week's economic calendar should print exactly on schedule: five separate releases building toward Friday's jobs report, with a Federal Reserve decision waiting three weeks after that.
Did the government actually shut down on October 1?
No. Lawmakers passed a funding bill weeks ahead of the deadline, and the president signed it, so federal agencies stayed open and scheduled data releases stayed on their normal calendar.
The Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027 passed the House 370-48 on September 1 and the Senate 90-6 in August, and President Trump signed it into law on September 2, nearly a month ahead of the deadline. Funding now runs through December 11, pushing the next shutdown fight past the November midterms.
Why does that matter for this week's data?
A funded government means no structural reason for this week's releases to slip. During the last shutdown, several scheduled reports were delayed until funding resumed, which is exactly the outcome this resolution avoids.
With funding secured, JOLTS, ADP, ISM Manufacturing, jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls are all on track to print as scheduled this week.
What's actually on the calendar this week?
Five releases across four days. Monday brings Pending Home Sales. Tuesday brings JOLTS job openings, Consumer Confidence and the Chicago PMI. Wednesday brings ADP employment and ISM Manufacturing. Thursday brings jobless claims and Factory Orders. Friday brings nonfarm payrolls and ISM Services.
Per the week's economic calendar: Tuesday's JOLTS release lands at 10:00 AM ET alongside Consumer Confidence and the Chicago PMI. Wednesday brings the ADP employment change at 8:15 AM ET and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 AM ET. Thursday brings weekly jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET and Factory Orders. Friday closes the week with nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate at 8:30 AM ET, plus ISM Services PMI at 10:00 AM ET.
Why does Friday's jobs report matter more than a typical month?
It is the last full labor market read the Fed gets before its next rate decision, at a moment when the committee is actively debating another hike.
The Federal Reserve raised its target rate to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, the first hike since 2023, in a unanimous 12-0 vote. In the projections released alongside that decision, 16 of 18 committee members signaled another hike is possible before year end, which is why every data point between now and the next meeting carries extra weight.
What do rate markets expect for the next Fed decision?
Odds of another hike have been climbing through September, though the exact number depends on which day and which pricing source you check.
The next FOMC meeting is October 27-28, with the rate decision due at 2:00 PM ET on the 28th. CME FedWatch-tracked odds moved higher through September, climbing from roughly 58% in mid-month toward the 80% range by the following week as the market repriced around the September hike and subsequent Fed commentary. That number will keep moving with every release this week, especially Friday's.
What happened in markets last week?
Stocks closed out a second straight weekly gain, even as long-end yields stayed elevated, a divergence this week's data will help settle.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,743.41 on Friday, up 0.51% on the day.
What should traders actually watch for?
Not just the headline payrolls number. The prior two months' revisions print in the same release and have moved markets harder than the initial print more than once this cycle.
Options desks tend to price elevated implied volatility into the Friday session specifically because that revision risk sits on top of the usual print uncertainty, not instead of it. None of this is a signal to take a position ahead of the data. It is a reason to know which number you are actually watching before the tape moves.
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