What did stocks do in the week of November 2-6, 2026?
All three major indexes finished the week lower. The S&P 500 lost 2.68%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.37%, the Dow lost 0.94% and the Russell 2000 lost 2.05%. Friday brought a chip-led bounce in the Nasdaq and S&P 500, but not enough to repair a week that started with a heavy technology selloff and ended with higher Treasury yields.
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,376.86, up 0.31% on the day and down 2.68% on the week. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,579.42 (+1.09% Friday, -3.37% week). The Dow closed at 51,285.73, down 0.46% Friday and 0.94% for the week. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,754.11.
The spread between the Nasdaq and the Dow, about 2.4 points of weekly performance, is the real story. Money did not leave equities evenly. It left the growth and AI-linked end first. CoinCentral's weekly wrap described the Friday move as a semiconductor rebound after Thursday's sharp selloff. Advanced Micro Devices rose 11.04% and Coherent rose 13.58% on Friday, while Axon fell 18.18%, per the same closing summary.
A bounce after a drop that size is a repair of positioning, not a verdict. One green Friday against a 3.37% weekly loss in the Nasdaq leaves the damage mostly intact.
What did the October jobs report show?
Payrolls rose by 165,000 in October and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. That was well above the roughly 65,000 gain economists expected. Revisions added 84,000 jobs to August and September combined. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4%. A strong print in an economy where the Fed is already debating hikes tends to push yields up.
The BLS Employment Situation release put October payrolls at +165,000 against a prior 12-month average of +48,000, with 7.1 million people unemployed. August was revised up to +186,000 and September to +60,000. Average hourly earnings rose 14 cents to $38.00, up 3.1% over 12 months. Reuters-polled economists had expected about 65,000 jobs and an unemployment rate near 4.2%.
Good news on jobs was bad news for the Dow on Friday. The Dow fell as Treasury yields rose after the print. The 10-year yield closed at 4.86%, up 2 basis points on the day and down 8 basis points on the week from 4.94%. The next jobs report, for November, is scheduled for December 4.
What is the Fed priced to do on December 9?
Futures lean toward a hike, not a cut. The Fed Watch pane in the OpticAlpha terminal showed 76% for the 4.00-4.25% range and 24% for a hold at the December 9 meeting, with the effective fed funds rate at 3.88%. The most likely bucket by June 2027 is 4.25-4.50% at 38%. No cuts are priced in the near window.
The effective federal funds rate sits at 3.88%, inside the current 3.75-4.00% target range set by the Federal Reserve. Pricing on CME FedWatch and in the terminal has leaned toward a December hike since the October FOMC meeting, where a hold was priced at 95% and hike odds for December were already near 75%.
The reason is the inflation gap. The September CPI print showed headline inflation at 3.7% against core at 2.6%, a 110 basis point difference driven largely by gasoline. WTI crude fell 13.23% last week to $90.34 a barrel, per the weekly market summary. If energy keeps cooling, the headline gap narrows and the hike case leans harder on core.
What are credit spreads and sentiment saying?
Both gauges flag stress. The stock market Fear & Greed index reads 22, which is Extreme Fear. The high-yield credit spread is 3.48%, up from about 2.6% in August. Credit has been widening for three months, which is a slower and usually more reliable stress signal than a single volatile equity week.
The VIX closed at 25.64, down 9.01% on Friday but up 32.03% on the week. The ICE BofA high-yield option-adjusted spread tracked in the OpticAlpha terminal was 3.48% on November 6, up 0.16 points on the day. Gold closed the week at $4,079.50, up 4.63%, and Bitcoin finished near $75,927, down 1.95%, per the same weekly summary.
Equity volatility spikes and fades. Credit spreads that grind wider for 12 weeks are harder to dismiss, and they are what equity investors tend to watch when the Fed is not offering relief.
What is on the calendar for the week of November 9?
The October CPI report is the main event. The BLS release is scheduled for Tuesday, November 10 at 8:30 AM ET. With hike odds at 76% for December and a 110 basis point headline-to-core gap in the last print, the core number is the one that moves rate pricing.
A core reading above the prior 2.6% would reinforce the hike path. A softer core with falling energy would be the first data point in weeks that pulls the 76% number down. Equity futures, the 10-year at 4.86% and the HY spread at 3.48% are the three prices that will show how the market reads it at 8:30 AM ET.
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