Probabilities — 16 Sep 2026
| Target Range | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3.75-4.00% | 64.6% |
| 3.50-3.75% | 35.4% |
What this is
Ahead of every Federal Reserve rate decision, futures markets imply a probability for each possible outcome, based on how those contracts are priced relative to the current target rate. Those implied odds shift constantly as new economic data and Fed communication change what traders expect, which makes them a useful real-time read on rate expectations even though they are not a forecast from the Fed itself. This page shows a delayed snapshot of the current target rate and the implied probability of each possible outcome at the next scheduled FOMC meeting.
How to read it
Probabilities are derived from how futures contracts tied to the federal funds rate are currently priced, converted into an implied probability for each possible target-rate range at the next meeting. These figures move continuously as new data changes trader expectations, so the snapshot on this page reflects a single point in time, not a running average. A high probability on a given outcome means the market currently expects that result, not that it is guaranteed. Futures-implied odds have moved sharply in the days immediately before a meeting on more than one occasion. This page shows odds for the next meeting only, not the full multi-meeting path.
FAQ
Is this the Fed's own forecast?
No, this is a market-implied probability derived from futures pricing, reflecting what traders currently expect, not guidance issued by the Federal Reserve itself.
Why do these odds change so often?
They're repriced continuously as new economic data, Fed speeches, and other news shift what traders expect the Fed to do, so a snapshot even a day old can already be stale heading into a data-heavy week.
Does a 70% probability mean the outcome is very likely?
It means the market currently assigns that probability given available information. It's a real-time expectation, not a guarantee, and can shift quickly on new data.
Does this show every future meeting?
No, this snapshot covers the next scheduled FOMC meeting only, not the full projected path across multiple future meetings.
Related terms & tools
Further reading
Informational only, not investment advice. Figures on this page are delayed by approximately 60 minutes, truncated to the top 15 rows, and refreshed periodically. They are not a real-time feed and are not affiliated with any exchange. For live, full-depth data across equities, crypto, forex, options, and macro, see the OpticAlpha terminal.