Market Stress on Election Day (Nov 3): Score 64 and Rising

Markets closed on election day with global stress at 64 out of 100, rated Elevated, and up 11 points in a week. Here is where the stress sits and how to read it. The score ranks how volatile a market is today against its own last 12 months. 0 is the quietest reading of the year, and 100 is the most volatile.

Tuesday was the US midterm vote. Options traders often pay up for protection around big political events, and options pricing is what this gauge reads in most markets. It does not say why a market moved, so the election is one possible factor among several. Stress is widespread, mostly in bonds and credit.

Rates and credit is the highest class, equities come next, and commodities are the calmest. 7 of 16 markets sit in the top quarter of their own yearly volatility. Japan's options are pricing in about 2.4 times the movement it has actually delivered. The ledger scores every market.

Options means the score uses options pricing, and Actual moves means it uses how far the market really moved. The options premium panel divides implied volatility by actual volatility over 30 days. Above one means options are pricing in more movement than recently happened. Stress is an end of day gauge.

It describes conditions and does not predict them. Try it free for 14 days. For information only, not financial advice.