The FOMC announces its decision at 2:00 PM ET today, Wednesday, October 28, 2026. The rate call is the least interesting part. The statement, the dot plot and the 2:30 PM ET press conference carry the information.
What are the odds of a Fed hold today?
Prediction markets put the hold at roughly 95%. Kalshi's FOMC contract shows a 95% chance the Fed maintains the rate, 5% for a 25bp hike, and 1% each for a larger hike or any cut, on $19.9M of 24-hour volume. CNBC's preview cites CME's FedWatch tool at about 10% for a hike this week, and Kiplinger's live coverage puts the hold near 90% at the current 3.75% to 4.00% range.
The sources disagree by a few points. They agree on the direction: nobody is pricing a move today.
Why does December matter more than today?
The market is pricing a hike in December, not today. Estimates run from about 73% to above 80%, depending on the source. Kiplinger's figure of 73% is up from 42% a month earlier, so the odds moved 31 points in one month.
That is the number the press conference has to defend or break. A hold with language that keeps December open confirms the curve. A hold that treats September's data as an energy blip does not.
What did September inflation show?
Headline CPI printed 3.7% year over year, above the 3.6% consensus and up from 3.4% in August. Core CPI came in at 2.6% year over year and 0.3% on the month, against forecasts of 2.5% and 0.2%, per Babypips' recap of the October 15 release. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in September alone.
Energy drove the headline. The core beat is the part a hawk points to, because it was not energy.
Where are Treasury yields going into the decision?
Tuesday's snapshot, per Yahoo Finance's live coverage: 2-year near 4.73%, 10-year near 4.99%, 30-year near 5.30%. The 10-year sits more than 100bp above the top of the funds range.
A curve that steep above policy says the market already expects tighter, not looser. The risk is not a hawkish hold. The risk is a hold that sounds less hawkish than a 4.99% 10-year assumes.
What should traders watch at 2:00 and 2:30 PM ET?
Three things, in order:
- Statement language at 2:00 PM ET. Any change to the inflation or forward-guidance wording is the first read.
- The dot plot. The number of hikes the median projects through 2027 sets the December tone.
- The press conference at 2:30 PM ET. CNBC's preview flags that Kevin Warsh may point to more hikes. Tone on December is the whole trade.
Same hold, opposite read. That is why a 95% priced decision can still move the 2-year by double digits in basis points.
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