What happened to SpaceX's lockup?
Up to 911.5 million insider shares, worth roughly $123 billion at recent prices, became eligible to trade for the first time since the IPO when SpaceX's lockup expired. $SPCX fell 13.6% Wednesday to $108.27, its second-worst session on record, a full day before a single unlocked share was actually tradable.
Most lockup expirations produce low-single-digit declines once real selling starts. This one got front-run hard, priced in before the mechanical trigger even hit.
Where do Fed rate odds actually stand for September?
The Fed held its target range at 3.50%-3.75% at the July 28-29 meeting on a 9-3 vote. The three dissenters, Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari, and Dallas's Lorie Logan, pushed for a 25 basis point hike rather than a hold, not a cut.
Markets have moved toward that hawkish view, not away from it. CME FedWatch shows roughly an 81% probability of a quarter-point hike at the September 16 meeting, versus a 19% chance of another hold and effectively no priced chance of a cut. That is up from a 61.9% hike probability as of August 4, as oil prices climbing on Middle East supply risk have revived inflation concerns. Minutes from the July meeting are due around August 19, roughly three weeks after the decision.
Why does the rate direction matter for the lockup trade?
A market pricing a hike, not a cut, means the discount-rate backdrop for a richly valued name like SpaceX is tightening, not easing, at the same time hundreds of billions in insider shares became tradable. That combination, tighter policy expectations plus a wall of new supply, is a tougher setup for the stock than a rate-cut narrative would suggest.
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