Payrolls rose by just 29,000 in September, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said both changes were small, but the miss against forecasts between 84,000 and 95,000 was not. The October report is due Friday, November 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Before it lands, it helps to know what the economic data series hold and why the first reading of any series deserves the least trust.
What is FRED, and why do traders use it?
FRED stands for Federal Reserve Economic Data. The St. Louis Fed maintains it, and it holds time series covering growth, prices, jobs and interest rates. Each series keeps its full history, so a reading can be judged against its own past rather than only against a forecast.
Why does the first jobs number keep changing?
Every monthly payroll figure starts as a preliminary estimate. September's report showed the pattern clearly. August's first reading of +162,000 was revised to +133,000, and the two-month net revision came to -60,000. That revision is close to the size of September's shortfall against forecast. A reader who only sees the headline sees a miss. A reader who also tracks revisions learns that the labor market was already softer than the first August print suggested.
Which FRED series matter over the next two weeks?
Payrolls and unemployment come first, on November 6. The unemployment rate moves in steps of 0.1 point, so a move from 4.2% to 4.3% will dominate the headlines even though it is small. CPI follows on Tuesday, November 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Weekly jobless claims give the fastest read on layoffs between monthly reports. The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread shows whether bond markets are pricing growth or policy risk.
How does the OpticAlpha macro tab show FRED?
The Macro channel tracks 18 FRED series in five groups: growth, inflation, labor, rates and policy. Each series shows a sparkline, its current value, its previous value and its direction. The live yield curve runs from 1-month to 30-year Treasuries, displays the 10Y minus 2Y spread directly, and labels the curve as normal, flat or inverted. Most FRED series update monthly, so the panel changes mainly when a new release lands.
What can FRED not tell you?
FRED records what was measured. It does not forecast the Fed's next move. Use the series to judge the data, then use the News channel's FedWatch chart to see what fed funds futures imply for rates.
Track live macro data at opticalpha.net/terminal. 14-day free trial, no credit card required.