Analysis across equities, crypto, forex, options and macro, written to complement the live data in the terminal.
Live rates and CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) positioning across the seven major pairs. These posts track net long/short extremes in the weekly COT report and the central bank decisions that tend to unwind them.
Start here: What Is the CFTC COT Report, and Which Version Should You Read?
The US and Japan just ran their first joint yen intervention since 1998. The textbook says carry trade unwinds spook risk assets. Bitcoin's actual correlation data this month says otherwise. Here is what a carry trade is and why the simple story is wrong.
Read article →Speculative bets shift to neutral on S&P 500, oil rigs rise to 593, and Fed rate hike odds rise—here’s what’s driving FX, stocks, and yields.
Read article →Dollar held firm this week as the Fed stayed at 3.50%-3.75%, VIX fell to 14.25, and EUR/USD hovered near 1.15-1.16 into Friday's close.
Read article →Dollar holds near resistance across EUR, GBP, JPY as VIX hits a 7-month low; Fed, ECB, BOE, BOJ rate gap and COT positioning, Aug 13, 2026.
Read article →ECB held at 2.25% on July 23. USD/JPY hit a 40-year high near 164 as EUR/USD and GBP/USD slipped on cooling Fed-cut odds and $100 oil.
Read article →ECB rate decision today, USD/JPY near a 40-year low, EIA crude inventories build 2M barrels, and CFTC positioning across EUR, GBP, JPY, NZD.
Read article →RBA holds at 4.35%, GBP shorts hit a record, ECB decides Thursday. FX week-ahead levels, COT positioning, and Fed hike odds for July 20-26, 2026.
Read article →FX week ahead: GBP shorts hit a record -156K, JPY shorts near a 2-year high, Fed at 3.50-3.75%, BOJ at 1.00%. Next COT report July 17.
Read article →Fed holds at 3.50%-3.75%, BOJ steady at 1.00% after June hike, GBP and JPY shorts near record COT levels. FX week in review, July 6-10, 2026.
Read article →PCE prints June 25, flash PMIs June 23, ECB hiked to 2.25% for the first time in 3 years. FX week ahead for June 22, 2026.
Read article →Post-FOMC dollar strength sent EUR to $1.15, its lowest since March. USDJPY holding 160 with yen shorts at -151K. GBPUSD near 1.34. COT positioning and FX levels after Warsh's hawkish dot plot.
Read article →Oil fell 8.5% on Iran deal signals as the ECB hiked rates to 2.25% and CAD whipsawed ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC decision.
Read article →US struck Iran after Tuesday's close. USDJPY at 160.15 with Tokyo talking intervention. May CPI prints June 10 at 8:30 AM ET. COT positioning and FX setup.
Read article →AUD leads FX on RBA hawkishness and strong COT longs. Yen weakens as BOJ holds at 0.75%. USD faces mixed pressure ahead of June 17 FOMC. June 2026 forex update.
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