The Census Bureau releases June durable goods orders this morning at 8:30 AM ET, the last major data point before the Fed's two-day meeting begins Tuesday. Markets head into the report with semiconductor stocks already deep in a correction and the rate decision framed as a real contest rather than a formality.
What does today's durable goods report show?
The report had not printed as of this writing. Headline durable goods orders are forecast to rebound to roughly 1.6% month over month, following May's steep 4.5% drop. Core orders, which strip out the volatile transportation category and are the cleaner read on business investment, ran hot in May at 1.3%, well above the 0.5% forecast at the time. Today's core print is the number that will move the capex narrative either way.
The Census Bureau's durable goods release covers new orders for manufactured goods meant to last three years or more, and May's ex-transportation strength is the baseline this month gets measured against. A soft core number would support the case that business investment is cooling even as headline orders bounce back on volatile aircraft bookings.
Why are semiconductor stocks under pressure going into the report?
The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 1.6% on Friday, July 24, extending its decline for the month to 18.2%, after the index of 30 chipmakers and suppliers had doubled over the first half of 2026. SOXL, the 3x leveraged semiconductor fund, is down roughly 30% over the trailing month as the correction deepens. The VIX closed the same session at 18.58, down 0.64%, so the broad market stayed comparatively calm even as chip stocks absorbed most of the selling.
Friday's VIX close came the same session Intel's post-earnings slide extended, shares fell nearly 8% despite the company's fastest revenue growth in over 15 years, and renewed questions about AI-linked capital spending at TSMC and SK Hynix. Rising capex is starting to read as a warning sign rather than a growth signal across the sector.
What is the Fed deciding this week?
The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with the rate decision due at 2:00 PM ET on July 29. The Fed has held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% since Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting in June. Fed funds futures currently price something like 61% to 65% odds of another hold this week, with the remaining probability split toward a quarter-point hike rather than a cut.
The decision follows the Federal Reserve's meeting calendar, and CME FedWatch pricing reflects the same split. That matters because nine of the eighteen officials on June's dot plot already flagged a possible hike sometime in 2026. A hold on Wednesday would not close that question, it would just push it to a later meeting.
What are Treasury yields signaling?
Yields rose across the curve heading into the meeting. The 2-year note closed July 24 at 4.33%, the 5-year at 4.44%, and the 10-year at 4.69%. That is a curve sloping upward, not flattening, which reads as a hawkish signal from a bond market pricing hike risk rather than a soft landing.
The 2-year and 10-year series are tracked daily by the St. Louis Fed, and the spread between them is the cleanest read on whether the curve is steepening or flattening from one session to the next.
What earnings land this week?
Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday, and Amazon reports Thursday. Apple and Qualcomm follow next week. Alphabet's results set the tone: cloud revenue up 82% year over year, but 2026 capex guidance raised toward $195-205 billion and free cash flow negative for the first time since its 2004 listing. Beating on revenue no longer looks like enough if the capex line moves the wrong way, the same dynamic now being tested across the rest of the hyperscalers.
What should traders watch after this week?
The next major data point is the July employment report, due Friday, August 7 at 8:30 AM ET, the last full payrolls read the Fed gets before its September meeting. Continued softness in business investment, the kind today's durable goods number could confirm, would add weight to the hold case. A hot core print alongside sticky inflation would do the opposite.
The BLS employment situation report is the single data point most likely to move September's rate odds more than anything printed this week.
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